{"id":319316,"date":"2022-08-15T11:27:02","date_gmt":"2022-08-15T11:27:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.zfx.com\/?post_type=market_outlook&p=319316"},"modified":"2022-08-16T06:52:51","modified_gmt":"2022-08-16T06:52:51","slug":"nhan-dinh-thi-truong-15-8-2022","status":"publish","type":"market_outlook","link":"https:\/\/www.zfxvn.com\/vi\/market-outlook\/nhan-dinh-thi-truong-15-8-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"USD ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd. D\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 USD Index<\/strong> <\/h2>\n

USD ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd t\u1eeb h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3  104,64 sau khi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u CPI Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb mang chi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c h\u01a1n \u1edf m\u1ee9c 8,5%, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi m\u1ed1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u1edf 8,7%. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ed3ng b\u1ea1c xanh gi\u1ea3m \u0111i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 n\u1ebfu Fed c\u00f3 d\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi. <\/p>\n

B\u00eanh c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, s\u1ef1 y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m trong c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf khi\u1ebfn kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Fed t\u0103ng 75bps v\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp t\u1edbi tr\u1edf n\u00ean h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf h\u01a1n. \u0110\u1ed3ng b\u1ea1c xanh kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c 105 v\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean 106,5 nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u \u201c\u0111\u1ec9nh\u201d c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd mang \u0111\u1ebfn \u00e1p l\u1ef1c nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n cho \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4. V\u00ec v\u1eady, trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch canh b\u00e1n ra USD Index s\u1ebd h\u1ee3p l\u00fd h\u01a1n.  <\/p>\n

\"usd-zfxvn\"<\/figure>\n

Nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 V\u00e0ng<\/strong> <\/h2>\n

Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng k\u1ebft th\u00fac tu\u1ea7n t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 1,5% khi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh. C\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, hay ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (CPI) v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t (PPI) \u0111\u1ec1u h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Fed \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt sau khi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u CPI \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 \u1edf m\u1ee9c 8,5%. \u0110\u1ed3ng b\u1ea1c xanh gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 V\u00e0ng leo cao h\u01a1n trong tu\u1ea7n v\u1eeba qua.  <\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 V\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ebfn v\u00f9ng kh\u00e1ng c\u1ef1 1805-1820. Do \u0111\u00f3, gi\u00e1 V\u00e0ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cao s\u1ebd \u0111i ngang t\u00edch lu\u1ef9 t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e2y trong bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 1770 – 1800 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 b\u1ee9t ph\u00e1 n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0o \u0111\u00eam th\u1ee9 t\u01b0 khi bi\u00ean b\u1ea3n FOMC \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1. N\u1ebfu V\u00e0ng b\u1ee9t ph\u00e1 qua 1820 th\u00ec m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u1edf 1865-1875 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, l\u00fac n\u00e0y ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd canh Mua l\u00ean. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, gi\u00e1 t\u00edch lu\u1ef9 v\u00e0 ph\u00e1 xu\u1ed1ng 1770 s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e0 h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c n\u00e0y ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t, V\u00e0ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cao ph\u1ea3i quay v\u1ec1 ki\u1ec3m tra l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e1y. <\/p>\n

\"xauusd-zfx\"<\/figure>\n

C\u1eb7p ti\u1ec1n EUR\/USD<\/strong> <\/h2>\n

Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t trong tu\u1ea7n v\u1eeba r\u1ed3i \u0111a\u0303 \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u kho\u1ea3n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng Euro xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c t\u1ed3i t\u1eb9\u0302 nh\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m. V\u00ea\u0300 ph\u00eda Hoa K\u1ef3, c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u d\u01b0\u0303 li\u1ec7u c\u1ea7n xem x\u00e9t t\u01b0\u0300 b\u00e2y gi\u01a1\u0300 \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u00e1ng 9 c\u1ee7a Fed, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 h\u1ed9i nghi\u0323 Jackson Hole v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng n\u00e0y. \u0110i\u1ec3m n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt trong tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y s\u1ebd l\u00e0 d\u01b0\u0303 li\u1ec7u s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p PPI va\u0300 doanh s\u00f4\u0301 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb Retail Sales, \u0111\u1ec1u s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 ra s\u01b0\u0323 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i trong ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u00ea\u0301 quy\u0301 III va\u0300 s\u1ebd h\u00f4\u0303 tr\u01a1\u0323 USD.  <\/p>\n

V\u00ea\u0300 m\u1eb7t ky\u0303 thu\u1eadt, \u0111a\u0300 t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a EUR\/USD trong tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y ch\u01b0a \u0111u\u0309 thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c, khi \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1eef \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c 1,03. Hay n\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u1ea3m trong n\u1eeda sau tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e0 kh\u00e1 l\u1edbn. EUR\/USD \u0111ang ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ebfn v\u00f9ng tranh ch\u1ea5p quan tr\u1ecdng trong kho\u1ea3ng \u1edf 1,02 \u2013 1,025. \u0110\u00e0 t\u0103ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebfp di\u1ec5n n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch cao h\u01a1n t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e2y.  <\/p>\n

\"eurusd-zfx\"<\/figure>\n